Just two months ago when the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. After the England international drilled in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a side who have put together a ten-match winning streak, they look strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the player he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
